Apple’s long-awaited mixed reality headset seems increasingly likely, but a new report suggests a turbulent development process that resembles a classic Apple product with a mixed reputation.
Financial Times (opens in a new tab) suggests that Apple CEO Tim Cook has decided to “debut this year” a mixed reality headset that apparently resembles a pair of lightweight ski goggles and will combine AR and VR experiences.
However, in making this decision, Cook apparently “rejected early objections from Apple designers to wait for technology to catch up with their vision.” Given that Apple’s VR headset apparently lasts seven years and is “expected to cost around $3,000,” it’s hard not to hear these speculations and think of the Apple Newton.
Just over 30 years ago, in May 1992, Apple announced a pretty groundbreaking product called the Newton MessagePad, which marked the beginning of a new mobile computing platform called the PDA (or Personal Digital Assistant). The Newton was also in development for six years, bogged down in internal disputes, and was too expensive at launch (costing $900, or about $1,860/£1,540/$2,400 at today’s prices).
Of course, we have no way of knowing if the fortunes of Apple’s headset – rumored to be called the Apple Reality Pro – could ultimately follow the same path as the Newton, which was discontinued in 1997. Apple will certainly do everything to ensure it won’t, including launching a “marketing attack on a new product” (according to the Financial Times).
But the similarities don’t stop there – the FT also says that Tim Cook is betting on the headset “to safeguard his legacy” as it is “the first new computing platform to be developed entirely under his leadership”.
Similarly, in the late 1980s, Apple CEO John Sculley – whose boardroom brawl with Steve Jobs led to the latter acrimoniously leaving the company – stabilized Apple and returned to profitability in a similar fashion to Tim Cook, but sought an innovative startup that would define the future of computer science.
Like Newton, Apple’s mixed reality headset will be built around innovative new input systems if the rumors are confirmed. Newton’s particular talent was handwriting recognition software, which ultimately laid the foundation for the iPhone. According to Bloomberg, owners of Apple AR/VR devices will interact with it using their hands and eyes.
But initially it appears that the headset we expect to unveil at WWDC 2023 in June will only be for well-to-do early adopters. According to the FT, Apple “expects to sell only about a million units of its headset in the first 12 months,” which is minus the equivalent iPhone or Apple Watch sales in their debut year.
Analysis: reality check for the Apple headset
Apple’s Mixed Reality Headset may ultimately prove to be a bigger iPhone-sized success than the damned Apple Newton, but these reports of a cumbersome development process only add to the similarities between the devices.
The Financial Times points out that the first versions of new Apple products usually do not sell well, and this was especially true of the original Apple iPhone and Apple iPod. The latter has sold less than five million units in total, which puts projections of one million unit sales of the Apple AR/VR headset in the first year ahead of the first year.
But none of Apple’s previous game changers this century – iPhone, Apple Watch, Airpods and iPod – had a price tag even close to the rumored $3,000 for Apple’s upcoming headset. If that’s the price, or close to it, it’s likely to be a first generation product with the ultimate goal of setting the flag for a truly mass-market gadget.
When the Newton finally came out in 1993 – more than a year after its first public demonstration – it was technologically impressive, but its core features like handwriting recognition didn’t work well enough out of the box. Hence his famous appearance in The Simpsons (opens in a new tab)when Dolph wrote the note “Beat Martin” on Newton, which he duly translated as “Eat Myrtle”.
Clearly, Apple’s upcoming headset will have to better live up to the considerable hype that has been generated over the past few years. According to respected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, we could eventually get two more Apple AR/VR headsets in 2025, including a much-needed cheaper model. And that could eventually lead to Apple Glasses, which the FT said could “take a few more years” according to “most in the tech industry.”
But the debut device for Apple’s xrOS augmented reality platform will have to avoid Newton’s pitfalls if it is to be Apple’s next big hit.